Q1 2022 GDP Data Analysis


KPMG U.S. Senior Economist Ken Kim on shrinking GDP:

"Real GDP contracted by 1.4% (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in Q1 2022, missing expectations for a 1.0% increase.  The headline GDP result overstates the perceived weakness in the U.S. economy and when we look under the hood, the indications continue to point to a low likelihood of a recession this year. 

Two swing factors, inventories and trade, pulled GDP lower.  Excluding these two measures, a core version of GDP growth, referred to as “final sales to domestic purchasers,” showed a solid increase of 2.7% in Q1 2022.

The best way to interpret today’s GDP data is to combine this quarter and last quarter’s growth rates.  In Q4 2021, real GDP growth clocked in at a super-charged rate of 6.9%.  The average for the two quarters works out to 2.8%, still a respectable rate of economic growth."

To speak with Ken Kim please contact Allison Rivellini.

Media contact

Allison Rivellini

Allison Rivellini

Senior Associate, Corporate Communications, KPMG US

+1 212-758-9700



Kenneth Kim

Kenneth Kim

Senior Economist, KPMG US

+1 212-954-6144

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