KPMG predicts Automotive Semiconductor industry to surpass $250 billion by 2040

Spike in oil prices, chip shortage, EV adoption, other factors to accelerate demand

KPMG is accelerating its timeline for the automotive semiconductor sector. In a 25% increase from the original forecast, KPMG projects the automotive segment will surpass $250 billion by 2040. The firm also projects the automotive semiconductor market to reach $200 billion by the mid-2030s, five years sooner than KPMG’s previous outlook, published in 2019.

Key drivers include:

  • Spike in oil: Higher gas prices have spiked demand for EVs, which require more chips than a traditional automobile. In KPMG’s 2022 Consumer Pulse Report, nearly 50% of respondents that owned a gas-powered vehicle indicated that they were considering a hybrid or EV for their next car.
  • Chip shortage: The global shortage prompted automakers to prioritize higher priced luxury vehicles that require more electronics per car.
  • Record sales: 2021 was a record year for the global semiconductor industry, growing to more than $550 billion, a 25.6% increase over 2020.
  • Additional capacity: Both the private and public sector worldwide are continuing to invest semiconductor facilities. In 2021, TSMC pledged to invest over $100 billion over three years.
Advances in technology and societal shifts to environmentally friendly practices are continuing to transform industries, and automotive is no outlier. The spike in oil prices coupled with increasing support for reduced carbon emissions is driving demand for, and thus innovation in, semiconductors for more advanced vehicles.
Mark Gibson, KPMG U.S. National Sector Leader for Technology, Media, and Telecommunications

Despite persistent supply chain challenges,  industry confidence surged to an all-time high for semiconductor executives according to the 2022 KPMG Global Semiconductor Industry Outlook conducted by KPMG and the Global Semiconductor Alliance during the fourth quarter of 2021. In the Outlook, the automotive sector ranked as the second highest revenue driver over the next year for the first time in the survey’s history. 

“Consumer preferences and behaviors have rapidly shifted over the past few years, and automakers have been actively investing in advanced technologies to improve the consumer experience and capture new markets such as for EVs and AVs,” said Gary Silberg, KPMG Global Automotive Sector Leader. “When it comes to semiconductor growth, automotive remains in the fast lane and as we build the infrastructure to support widespread EV adoption, demand will only go up.”

During May of 2022, working with the Global Semiconductor Alliance, the KPMG semiconductor practice surveyed 28 C-level executives at the world’s largest semiconductor companies on whether the Russia-Ukraine war, ongoing global chip shortage, and other geopolitical issues had changed their positive outlook. The majority of respondents remained positive, reaffirming initial findings from the fourth quarter of 2021.

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